Yeah, i was talking about your lists.

Spears are cheaper, but they don't allow you to leverage your strengths, they dilute it. You're trading numbers so that each Duel is less effective. That *can* work if, say, you have a lot of ground to cover, but it generally doesn't give a better outcome.

Getting a 3rd die in a fight in this game is critical, you get compounding returns. 3 uruks have better odds than 2 elves of winning, and it gets better as your opponent's fight decreases. It's common (at least in my games) for a warband of uruks to wipe out a warband of WoMT and not suffer a single casualty, if the WoMT player tries to go toe to toe (as my friend learned to his chagrin). And not only do you win more fights, you multiply the odds of wounding...it's almost a certainty that in 3 dice you're going to a roll a 5 or better to wound, and if not, well, you won the fight anyway so you can't be killed.

If you have just 2 dice (uruk + orc spear), the odds of stagnation increase, you can effectively be held off by a single model that is shielding, even if it's a lowly WoMT. You might still win the Duel, but you're less likely to kill it. Plus, stagnant lines just give the opponent a chance to regroup.

Lastly, Orcs run faster in the end game, and since they're spear support, they're less likely to die in combat, and might be all you have left if you break.

So yes, pikes will give you fewer warriors. You need to protect them, and also you need to learn where to use them to best effect...concentration is the key.

Coming up with a points list is tedious but a general formula I've found that works alright is something like 3 groups (not warbands, but tactical groups):
A) 1/3 xbows
B) 1/2 shield + pikes, ie: 1/6 shields, 1/3 pikes
C) 1/6 shields and/or bezerkers/ferals on the flanks

You don't want a tight pike block, because you can get trapped if things go wrong, but wherever you have a pike line you want to protect its flanks with members of group C. Sometimes all group C is for is shielding on the flanks to hold positions, and replacing the shields in group B.

You do have quite a few ferals in your list, and it might make sense to pair them with orc spears because you still get that 3rd die. Adding a 4th with pikes might be tempting...more is better, right?...but 3 dice is a sweet spot in terms of the intersection of odds and resource allocation. 4 dice give diminishing returns (which is one reason why few heroes have 4 attacks). But berzerkers/ferals are still 1 Wound models, and it's a big loss when they're taken out and all you have left is an orc spear. Besides, IMHO ferals are too soft to put in a front line like that, since anyone except hobbits can kill them on a 5.