I tried translating the original post into Portuguese, then back into English, to see if it made it flow better.
[spoiler]Reading more two Towers, specifically the chapters on the Rudders of the ship Deeply and Rubble and Shipwreck I am thinking about Saruman this: I think that he was convinced that with only 10 thousand he would come to carry out his objective completely to dominate Rohan. Okey!!!! that the numbers very often do not say anything, and which imports, there are the strategies and the way of being in front of a war, but as Saruman wanted very much, to order in order that thousand to dominate a monarchy with 10, it ends being a madness and up to childishness and innocence of the part of Saruman. In my way of seeing, supporting this he must be with an army bigger and more prepared of such ends and never leave empty Isengard, this was very a little for the one who wanted to be one of the great ones in the Average Land. He is still Saruman it forgot of the ents of making his situation worse. Possibly he was having right 10.000 for the first stage, specially because in the battle of the rudders of the ship deeply, it is linked it left victoriously, the rest of the army of Uruk hai would be perhaps, less than the half, 3.000 or 4.000. This number is very small to dominate the whole monarchy of Rohan. Saruman hesitated deeply! What you intend about the attitudes of Saruman to want to dominate a great monarchy as Rohan with only 10.000 warriors and a little more than what I find?[/spoiler]
I think I just confused myself even more...
Right, it's been a while since I read the Two Towers, so I'm going to try and apply logic where memory fails.
Yes, I agree that, for all intents and purposes, it looked as though Saruman was convinced that his army could take Helm's Deep, and, ultimately Rohan.
I'm having real trouble understanding the 3rd paragraph, but I agree that it was perhaps short-sighted of Saruman, not to take every possible factor into account before launching the attack. It is said that Saruman is petty, but I don't think childish is appropriate.
In reality, the attack had begun long before the Siege of HD, what with the insidious actions of Grima, and the subsequent effect on Theoden's mental health. Saruman was arrogant, and naive in that he believed that he could recover the Ring from under Sauron's nose, and whilst they were not allies, per se, their cause at the time was similar enough to form a band between them, however, as seems to be the nature of evil, both sought to use the other as a pawn.
The number 10,000 alone does not carry the weight of the army at Saruman's disposal. What we are talking about is an army, 10,000 strong, composed primarily of the fighting Uruk-hai. yes there are Orcs and Dunlendings included in the total, but their numbers combined, probably account for less than half the force.
10,000 Uruk-hai is a potent force, 10,000 Orcs is worrying, 10,000 Hobbits is laughable.
Numbers alone don't tell the full story, you have to take the composition into account.
Yes, Saruman forgot the Ents, however, considering that they could hardly be considered as an active people in M-e, this is understandable. He also overlooked the arrival of the Elves, but then, even the Rohirrim weren't expecting them.
Saruman considered his army sufficient to the task in hand due to the fact that;
- they were predominantly Uruk-hai
- he had agents within Rohan, undermining Theoden, and sowing discord amongst the people.
- he probably believed Gandalf to be vanquished
- Rohan was unsupported by allies, or those that would possibly help were too far away to provide immediate assistance.
- the heir of Elendil was in hiding, and Narsil remained in pieces
Yes, it is asking a lot, but the psychological factor of taking Helm's Deep would have played a large part in repercussions after the siege, no matter how many casualties his army had suffered. The fact that they would have achieved the, until then, impossible, would have seriously disheartened any survivors, and would have a considerable effect on morale.
Once Helm's Deep was under Sauron's command, it would only have been a case of mopping up the survivors. With his siege works, he could destroy villages from afar, whilst the superior armour and equipment of the Uruk-hai would protect them from the attentions of any reprisals by the survivors, and scattered scouting parties.
Taking Helm's Deep would have broken Rohan completely, and would also have given Saruman space to increase his spawning pits and siegeworks, resulting in a renewed army, whilst the Rohirrim would be reduced to scattered bands, relying on ambushes for victory. Each of which, not matter how light casualties were, would have a devastating toll on their numbers.
Therefore, whilst ultimately doomed to failure, I feel that Saruman had a very good chance of victory. I do not think that it was overly conceited that he believed his army equal to the task, nor that he had made any glaring omissions in his plans. Rohan was alone, attacked from within and without and seriously outnumbered, and only the, highly coincidental , collective meeting of numerous factors foiled his plans.
Man, too much serious for one morning. I need a lie down.
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