my local store owner has told me that since that all hobbit model's are high priced that after the final hobbit movie that GW will be slowly stopping this whole table top. just wondering if any one else has seen this or even thought about it.

That's what GW did after LotR had dropped in popularity, they let it drift. If it weren't for the Hobbit movies I'm sure it would have been dropped or moved to their "specialist" games. I'd expect the same after the Hobbit movies are all out and the "extended" versions are released. Give it a couple years after that...

We're very much living on borrowed time, I feel.

Once TABA is out I expect maybe one or two years of continued 'support' followed by the line moving direct only, followed by production ceasing (entering the 'when it's gone, it's gone' era, like the metal minis are now). Once the contract is up, I don't expect it'll be renewed, and then that'll be goodbye.

I've been working with that in mind for a while now, having recently cleared up the last of the metals I need, and having almost finished the LotR side of things. I expect to be caught up by the time TABA is out, allowing me to just focus on that, and building the Hobbit forces. I gave up on Warhammer and 40k to pursue this angle, and when the SBG is done, I expect I'll jump ship to historicals. The perry twins plastic kits are drop dead gorgeous, and I feel have been their 'A-game' for some time now.

My predictions are no secret and definitely along the lines of Creaky's. I have no intention of dropping LOTR/Hobbit SBG even after it's no longer produced but I've begun diversifying into other good games. Certainly nothing else GW their other games are trash.
I'd recommend Mantic's Dreadball and Deadzone as well as Warlord's Bolt Action. Really fun games.
And I can't say anything for fear of having my ideas stolen but I'm working on a game myself so there's good alternatives once LOTR is done

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Completely agree, LOTR will always be my "first love" as it were, but I also diversified, Bolt Action mainly, superb game with rules written by Alessio Cavatore and Rick Priestley, part of the original SBG rules team. In fact Bolt Action rules are very similar to SBG.

Look forward to hearing about your own game system JamesR

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Having studied marketing myself i can only understand one thing for sure, they would have never renew such expensive license for 10 more years on LOTR/hobbit if their products were not profitable, and you dont stop something profitable.
sure the game will not be around forever but talking with facts its their 2nd best selling game (after WH 40k) wich means even after TABA they wont stop the production unless its not profitable any more (witch is not the case right now)
Also a company like GW needs more than 1 game to be around in the markets and keep the monopoly it has now.

So the only reason that they keep the prices high is because they have ALL the rights on LOTR/hobbit and simply trying to maximize their profit (pure marketing if you have the monopoly on the market)
So you can be sure that the production will be around atleast 5-6 years more and for sure be supported by GW for another 9-10 (as long as they have the licence)

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That's only true if the market continues at even close to what it currently is. The LOTR sales tanked a little while after ROTK was done. Going strictly off past patterns it will not continue 9-10 years and it will dip back to third in sales a few years after the final Hobbit film. Hopefully we can build a large enough community to change the pattern this time

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I have seen the same thing happen to Blood Bowl (GW stopped supporting it). A great community stood up and I feel the game is still very much alive, with a superb tournament scene and new players getting drawn in to the game trough league play in local hobby clubs.

I hope this will happen to LotR / Hobbit SBG too. The current expanding tournament scene in the UK feeds that hope.

Hear hear.

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While Middle-earth is a valuable piece of intellectual property for a lot of companies, its also part of the English speaking world's cultural heritage. At the very least its the original that games and properties such as Dungeons & Dragons and Warhammer were riffing off (or slagging off). While I doubt the current Hobbit films will have the same sort of beloved quality as the LOTR films, the combination of films, miniature game and so on means people will still be drawn to gaming in middle earth many years from now.

We may not be using GW figures, we may not be using GW rules, but we'll probably still be playing some sort of skirmish game in Middle-earth ten years from now.

(When I shall be very middle aged. What a horrible thought! Where's my damn stem cell smoothies?!)

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The same thing with Mordheim. There is quite active community in my town despite the fact the game is not supported for years. Don't forget that leaving the game by GW also means it cannot be screwed up by new rulebooks and unballanced armybooks/codices like happens with WH and WH40. As long as the gaming community lives, the game lives as well

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Does anybody know what year the licence was renewed for the LOTR range

IIRC it was renewed this year (or maybe last year) until 2017 or something.

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2017 is the date I heard.

Whether it means anything, or is one of those "fan speculations taken as fact and subsequently parroted as such so that chumps like me pick up on it and assume the parrot knows what he's going on about" is anyones guess. One would assume gw and wb would keep the terms of any such contract under wraps.

For the record, I really do think the sbg has tons of room to expand and grow. From eras/ regions - Numenor, Eregion, First Age (with the rights, of course), expanding Hobbit army lists (dale etc) to the breadth and depth of classic lists like Gondor or Rohan. And full on gameplay expansions - a proper siege supplement would be great, greatly expanding the current system, and adding a system to correctly balance sieges (1000 point game, attacker gets 1000 points to spend on ladders, rams, towers, etc, defender gets 1000 points to spend on walls, towers, gates, etc.). A mass battles supplement is also an obvious place to go, adapting the formations rules that Warhammer historical brought into the game.

I do agree that the game will live on after GW nixes it (though it probably/certainly wont grow, unless another company picks up the license for a wargame in this setting, making minis available for it again). I'm looking forward to expanding Umbar using historical miniatures - I've already earmarked the Fireforge Games upcoming saracens for an expansion to Harad, and I'm excited about a bit more experimental conversions for the city itself. Middle Earth will live on!

When gw allows the lotr/ hobbit license to expire, I think we'll see the community start using minis like the perry brother's, mithril, wargames factory, and gripping beast. Finding suitable elves and dwarves may be difficult, but if gamers really want it, the game will live on.

No we wont funnily enough, I had this conversation on the drive back from Stockport. My view on it was I'd walk away from the hobby than face 3rd party Devlan Mud on the table. The odd model here and there MAYBE but to face an army of vikings would be a huge kick in the balls.

What I think will happen is the exisiting community will hopefully open their collections up so new players have the option to borrow the rarer metal models.

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personally I wont as I dislike mixing the aesthetics greatly. The only ones I'm considering is Wargames Factory Samurai instead of GW's Khandish because I hate the Khandish sculpts, just terrible looking IMO

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Thanks for the info guys. Personally I believe LOTR is a brand much like Star Wars and GW will continue to produce miniatures, perhaps they will not pay as much for the licences as when the films were releases but it is just such a big brand that they will not allow competitors to get hold of. I also agree there is plenty of room for expansion I would love to see a range of Breelanders added.

I hope you're right, my skepticism comes from the fact GW hasn't shown this in the last 13 years while making the game.
And the license thing, there's actually a great example of this. With Star Wars a company called Wizards of the Coast made a terrific and HUGE game that covered every Age of Star Wars (Knights of the old republic, To the movies, to the Yuuzen Vong war and beyond).

Then they stopped renewing the license and now a company called Fantasy Flight took the license and is making their solid game (that makes GW prices look great) called X-Wing.

The point being companies do let licenses like this go, So it doesn't bode well for us IMO

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Well, I have been absent for some time and occasionally stop by.
I just visited the GW web site and was blown away by the prices!
I can't believe people can afford this game anymore. I stopped collecting a while ago and I must say it was a good thing. I think I'll play with what I have and leave it at that. No more investing in this game for me.
I still have a small back log of figures to paint...
I'll still stop back from time to time, but ouch, my eyes are still stinging from the blistering prices!